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Laplace's Rule of Succession

This is a short article on Laplace's rule of succession. The rule is derived in the context of a ball and urn model. Specifically, there are \(N + 1\) urns and urn \(k\) contains \(k\) red and \(N - k\) blue balls. An urn is chosen at random and then balls are selected at random from that urn. Laplace's rule is an approximation of the probability that the \(n + 1\) ball is red given \(n\) consecutive red balls.
Identifier: 
http://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/RuleOfSuccession.shtml
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Average: 3 (227 votes)
Creator(s): 
Alexander Bogomolny
Cataloger: 
Kyle Siegrist
Publisher: 
Cut-the-knot
Rights: 
Copyright Alexander Bogomolny. The HTML page can be accessed and linked to, but not copied or used in other works.

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