Rational Choice and Judgement: Decision Analysis for the Decider

Rex Brown

Publisher:

John Wiley

Publication Date:

2005

Number of Pages:

245

Format:

Hardcover

Series:

Wiley Series in systems Engineering and Management

Price:

79.95

ISBN:

0-471-20237-1

Category:

Textbook

MAA Review
Table of Contents

[Reviewed by

Toby Donaldson

, on

04/8/2006

]

This book is a well-written textbook aimed at helping students make better personal and professional decisions. It describes a number of practical techniques and aids for humans who are making complex decisions. The book is filled with interesting and realistic examples, and the author takes pains to point out that making difficult decisions is not just a matter of crunching the numbers. He takes the feelings and intuitions of the decider into account (when it makes sense to do so), which, along with practical examples, makes it easy to believe that the techniques in the book are worth of study.

The mathematical content is straightforward, appearing in utility calculations, weighted averages, and some simple probability. Everything is presented with realistic examples, plus much insightful advice on how to apply the techniques.

Dr. Toby Donaldson is an instructor in Simon Fraser University's School of Computing Science.

Preface.

Who Might Use This Book.

Background.

Substance of this Book.

Pedagogy.

Demands on Students and Instructor.

Other Approaches, Other Materials.

Author Background.

Acknowledgments.

Prolog: A Baby Delivery Dilemma.

1. Basics and Overview.

2. Uses of Decision Analysis.

Appendix 2A: Decision Analysis Reflects on His Work.

3. Evaluating a Choice Qualitatively.

4. Quantitative Aid to Rational Choice.

Appendix 4A: Business Decision Tree Example.

Appendix 4B: Private Example: Study or Play?

5. Describing Outcomes.

6. Taking Preference Into Account.

7. Choice Under Uncertainty.

Appendix 7A. Technical Notes.

8. Decision Aiding Strategy.

Appendix 8A. Influence Sketches.

9. Aiding the Professional Decider.

Appendix 9A. Environmental Regulation Case Study.

10. Assessing and Inferring Probabilities.

11. Eliciting Preferences.

12. Applied Term Project.

Appendix 12A. Student Project Report.

Epilog.

References.

Glossary of Concepts and Terms.

Index.

Tags:

Systems Theory