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Statistical Ratemaking

Statistical Ratemaking

Tulane University
New Orleans, Louisiana
June 21-25, 2004

Organized by Tom Struppeck, Head of Actuarial Studies, CDC IXIS Financial Guaranty, and Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society

Agenda

June 20, 2004 -- Participants arrive

June 21, 2004 -- Insurance: What is it?
9:00-10:30 am Introduction and breakfast
10:30-11:00 am Break
11:00-Noon What is insurance?
Does it help society?
Is it gambling?
Brief history of insurance
12:00-1:30 pm Lunch
1:30-2:30 pm Utility Theory
Would you buy a $10 bill for $25?
Different types of insurers and insurance products
2:30-3:15 pm Activity: What is your utility function?
3:15-3:30 pm Break
3:30-4:45 pm Actuaries and the professional societies
TBA Group dinner

June 22, 2004 -- Ratemaking Part I: What are the ingredients?
8:30-9:30 am
 Breakfast and review of first day
9:30-10:45 am
 Ratemaking overview
10:45-11:00 am
 Break
11:00-Noon
 Insurance Data
12:00-1:30 pm
 Lunch
1:30-3:15 pm
 Adjustments to data -- Part 1
Development
Trend
Catastrophes
3:15-3:30 pm
 Break
3:30-4:45 pm
 Adjustments to data -- Part 2
Catastrophes (continued)
On-level premiums
Trend from first dollar of loss, Symbol drift, and other adjustments
TBA
 Individual dinner

June 23. 2004 -- Credibility
8:30-9:15 am
 Breakast and review of previous day
9:15-10:00 am
 Classical credibility
10:00-10:15 am
 Break
10:15-Noon
 Complements of credibility and applying credibility to ratemaking
12:00-1:30 pm
 Lunch
1:30-3:00 pm
 The credibility of one car-year and shifting parameters
3:00-3:15 pm
 Break
3:15-4:45 pm
 Activity: Can you believe what you see?
TBA Group Dinner

June 24, 2004 -- Ratemaking Part II: Putting the pieces together
8:30-9:15 am
 Breakfast and review of previous day
9:15-10:00 am
 Setup for the ratemaking exercise
Explain rules
Select teams
10:00-10:15 am
 Break
10:15-Noon
 Rounds 1 & 2
12:00-1:30 pm
 Lunch
1:30-3:00 pm
 Rounds 3 & 4
3:00-3:15 pm
Break
3:15-4:45 pm
 Review results
TBA
 Individual dinner

June 25, 2004 -- Classification and Regulation
8:30-9:15 am
 Breakfast
9:15-10:00 am Regulation of insurance companies and classification
10:00-10:15 am
 Break
10:15-11:00 am
 What can happen without classification
11:00-Noon
Possible equilibria
12:00-2:00 pm
 Lunch and guest speaker (TBA)
2:00-3:00 pm
 Residual markets
3:00-4:00 pm
Recap
4:00-4:30 pm
 Plan for follow-up session at the Joint Mathematics Meeting in Atlanta
TBA
 Group Dinner

June 26, 2004 -- Depart