Adversarial Risk Analysis

Games and Decisions
Game Theory: A Review
Decision Analysis: An Introduction
Influence Diagrams
Problems

Simultaneous Games
Discrete Simultaneous Games: The Basics
Modeling Opponents
Comparison of ARA Models
Problems

Auctions
Non-Strategic Play
Minimax Perspectives
Bayes Nash Equilibrium
Level-k Thinking
Mirror Equilibria
Three Bidders
Problems

Sequential Games
Sequential Games: The Basics
ARA for Sequential Games
Case Study: Somali Pirates
Case Study: La Relance
Problems

Variations on Sequential Defend-Attack Games
The Sequential Defend-Attack Model
Multiple Attackers
Multiple Defenders
Multiple Targets
Defend-Attack-Defend Games
Learning

A Security Case Study
Casual Fare Evaders
Collusion
Pickpockets
Evaders and Pickpockets
Multiple Stations
Terrorism

Other Issues
Complex Systems
Applications

Solutions to Selected Exercises

References

Index