Probability and the Fairness of Fouls

December 18, 2010

Just in time for March Madness, Discoveries and Breakthroughs Inside Science presents a report on probability and biased college basketball referees.  

The report centers on the work of Kyle Anderson, an economist at Indiana University. Anderson's research analyzed college basketball games and found refs tend to try to keep the foul count even between teams. For example, if, at half time, team 'A' has 10 fouls and team 'B' has two fouls, both teams will end up with close to the same number of fouls by the end of the game. 

According to the report, Anderson also found: "The probability of a foul being called on the visiting team is 7 percent higher than on the home team. There is a 6.3 percent chance that a leading home team will have the next foul called on them. If the home team has five or more fouls than the visiting team, there is a 69 percent chance the visiting team will hear a whistle for the next foul."

Read more about his results here.  

Source: Discoveries and Breakthroughs Inside Science (March 1, 2010)