Usain Bolt Jolts Bloggers into Modeling Fastest Human

September 1, 2009

Usain Bolt's record-breaking 9.58 seconds in the 100-meter dash has bloggers talking mathematical models for the ultimate, fastest run.

Astrophysicist Ethan Siegel (University of Portland), who writes the "Starts With A Bang!" blog, initiated the discussion when he fit an exponential curve to world record times since 1900. With its downward, asymptotic slope, the curve suggested that the theoretical limit on how fast humans can run is about 9.2 seconds.

At the same time, the curve indicated that Bolt's latest record is an outlier: Bolt is running much faster than humans ought to be running right now. "We shouldn’t be seeing times like this until the 2030s," Siegel wrote.

Siegel's model triggered a strong response from readers, who critiqued his approach and suggested various factors that could influence such predictions. One commenter, for example, argued that modelers need to break down performances into smaller increments to identify where improvements are possible, from starting-gun reaction time to speeds at various points during a race.

Other modeling issues included variables such as how a field of contestants is advancing behind the winner. Finding out how the field's performance correlates with the winner's time may be crucial, as would understanding how levels of sprinting dominance have changed over the years. Improvements in training, materials, illicit steroid use, and other technologies and practices would also be factors affecting mathematical modeling of how fast a human can run the 100-meter dash.

Source: Starts With A Bang!, Aug. 19, 2009.